With two wins and an NRR of +0.689, India’s path is simple: one more win against either Bangladesh or Sri Lanka secures their final spot. If they lose both games, qualification will depend on other results.
Pakistan’s five-wicket win over Sri Lanka has revived their hopes. With 2 points (NRR +0.226), a win against Bangladesh guarantees a final berth. A loss would force them to rely on India’s defeats and NRR calculations.
After two losses, Sri Lanka (-0.590 NRR) need a miracle. They must beat India by a huge margin to boost NRR and also hope Bangladesh beat both India and Pakistan to stay alive.
With 2 points from their win over Sri Lanka, Bangladesh must beat either India or Pakistan to qualify. If India also beats Sri Lanka, Bangladesh will compete with Pakistan and India on NRR for the two spots.
If India lose both remaining games, then India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh could all end up with 2 points each. In that case, NRR will decide the finalists.
India remain favorites, Pakistan and Bangladesh are fighting for the second spot, while Sri Lanka’s chances are hanging by a thread, relying heavily on other results.