Asia Cup 2025 Qualification Scenarios: How can Pakistan still qualify for final?

Pakistan had a decent campaign in the Asia Cup 2025 so far, winning two matches against Oman and the UAE to qualify for the Super 4s. However, they had suffered a loss against India in the group stage. The team faced the Men in Blue again in the second Super Four match on Sunday, September 21, at Dubai International Cricket Stadium.

Salman Ali Agha’s side lost once more, this time by six wickets, bringing their Super Four campaign to a halt. Alongside Pakistan and India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also part of the round. In an early upset, the Bangla Tigers defeated Sri Lanka in the first match on Saturday, registering a narrow victory in a last-over thriller against the Charith Asalanka-led side.

Pakistan's Current Standing

Basic Requirements for Final Qualification

Teams aiming to qualify from the Super Four stage generally need at least two wins to boost their chances:

• 6 points (3 wins): Qualification confirmed;
• 4 points (2 wins): Likely to qualify, depending on other results and net run-rate (NRR);
• 2 points (1 win): Unlikely to qualify

Pakistan's Remaining Fixtures

Pakistan have a total of two games ahead of them. The fixtures are listed as follows:

• vs Sri Lanka on September 23 at Abu Dhabi
• vs Bangladesh on September 25 at Dubai

Qualification Scenarios

• If Pakistan win both the matches, they have high chance of qualifying

Final Points — 04

They are likely to finish in the top-two, if NRR stays above other teams, and might become a strong contender for the final.

• If Pakistan win one match out of two

Final Points — 02

Pakistan cannot qualify and will be eliminated from Asia Cup 2025

What Pakistan needs to do for their qualification

Pakistan must win both of their remaining matches against Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to secure a top-two finish and qualification, ideally by a significant margin to boost their net run rate (NRR).