What is the probability of Virat Kohli scoring 100 centuries by ODI World Cup 2027?

Once Indian batting stalwart Virat Kohli hammered his 50th ODI century against New Zealand during the 2023 ODI World Cup in Mumbai, surpassing the legendary Sachin Tendulkar’s record of 49 ODI tons, many questioned whether he could complete 100 international centuries before he calls time on his career.

Kohli currently stands at 82 international tons, 30 in Tests, 51 in ODIs, and one in T20Is. Following India’s T20 World Cup title win in June 2024, he announced his retirement from T20Is. More recently, in May 2025, the Delhi-born hung up his boots from Test cricket ahead of India’s England tour. This gives him only one format to chase down the tough number of 100 centuries.

With the 2027 ODI World Cup in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Namibia, possibly being his last dance in international cricket, he has a limited window to complete 19 centuries. Meanwhile, across four World Cups (2011, 2015, 2019, 2023), he has played 37 matches, scored 1795 runs at an average of 59.83, with five centuries and 12 fifties, with a strike rate of 88.20.

During the ICC Champions Trophy 2025, he became the fastest to 14,000 ODI runs, surpassing Tendulkar's previous record. With 16,000 ODI runs within range and the possibility of going past Kumar Sangakkara in total international runs, Kohli still has plenty of records to complete.

As of now, India are scheduled to play 27 ODIs until December 2026. Furthermore, they are scheduled to play nine potential matches in the World Cup group stage, and that number goes to 36 matches. Notably, the Men in Blue can play additional ODIs ahead of the World Cup in 2027, and if they qualify for the semis and finals, the numbers will add up.

To surpass the record, Kohli needs 19 more centuries, with one century every 1.94 innings. This is a tough task, considering his current ODI century rate of 0.1706 per innings. Mathematically, the probability of him scoring exactly 19 centuries in 36 matches is estimated to be approximately 1 in 14.7 million or 0.1706% per match, assuming all variables remain constant and he plays every single match.

Even with a purple patch, scoring a century every alternate game is a never-heard feat. Interestingly, Rohit Sharma and Kohli have scored the most centuries (11) in 35 consecutive ODI innings. Statistically, the odds are against the modern-day great of scoring 19 more centuries in at least 36 matches. However, if India plays additional ODIs leading into the 2027 World Cup or if Kohli continues further, the chances remain marginally open.

If he does pull it off, it will not only break Sachin’s long-standing record but also promote the right-handed batter to second spot on the all-time runs list across formats, overtaking Sangakkara.