Women's World Cup 2025 Qualification Scenarios: How can India still qualify for semi-final?

After a solid start to their ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 campaign, India has suddenly suffered a major setback. Consecutive defeats to South Africa and Australia have placed Harmanpreet Kaur’s team in a tricky position, leaving them little margin for error in the upcoming matches. Despite the setbacks, India’s qualification hopes for the semi-finals remain alive, but not that easily.

India opened their campaign by defeating Sri Lanka by 59 runs (DLS method) and arch-rivals Pakistan by 88 runs. Those wins propelled them to the top half of the table and put them as serious contenders for a top-four finish. However, the momentum shifted following back-to-back defeats.

First came the loss to South Africa in Visakhapatnam, where India’s batting recovery, led by Richa Ghosh’s 94 off 77 balls, wasn’t enough to defend 251. South Africa chased down the target with three wickets to spare. Then, against Australia, the Women in Blue faced a heartbreaking defeat in another high-scoring encounter. Despite posting a massive 330 on the board, thanks to half-centuries from Smriti Mandhana and Pratika Rawal, Alyssa Healy’s scintillating 142 guided the defending champions to the highest successful chase in Women’s ODI history, as they overhauled the target with six balls remaining.

India Women's Current Standing

India Women's Remaining Fixtures

The Women in Blue have a total of three games ahead of them. The fixtures are listed as follows:

• vs England on October 19 at Indore
• vs New Zealand on October 23 at Navi Mumbai
• vs Bangladesh on October 26 at Navi Mumbai

Qualification Scenarios

India need to win at least two, preferably all three, of their remaining games to stay alive in the semi-final race.

• If India wins all three: They will finish with 10 points, comfortably sealing a semi-final spot regardless of other results.
• If India win two and lose one: They’ll reach 8 points, which could still be enough provided their net run rate stays ahead of teams like South Africa or New Zealand.
• If India loses two or more: Their qualification chances become dependent on other results, particularly on how South Africa and New Zealand perform in their remaining matches.