With qualifiers looking certain at halfway stage, is it the most predictable IPL in history?

Is the eleventh edition of Indian Premier League (IPL) one of the most predictable in the history of the tournament? IPL 2018 is nearing its halfway stage and the qualifiers of the playoff stages look almost set: Chennai Super Kings (CSK), Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) and Kings XI Punjab (KXIP) have all reached 10 points by playing six or seven games while Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Rajasthan Royals (RR) are tied at six points each.

The three other teams in the fray – defenders much vaunted Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB), dramatic Delhi Daredevils (DD) and defenders Mumbai Indians (MI) have four, four and two points, respectively.

The second round of results needs to be reverse of the first this IPL

Technically, it is still not over for the lowest three teams but for IPL 2018 to turn into a thrilling affair, the second round has to be the exact obverse to the first, i.e., the last three have to win almost all their games while the top three have to lose a lion share of their remaining encounters. Going by the form, it remains highly likely that the MI or DD will turn the tables overnight and put the MS Dhonis, Kane Williamsons or Ravichandran Aswhins under any sort of pressure.

From the top three teams’ perspective, while CSK and SRH have clicked as a unit, KXIP have won some key games like those against CSK and SRH and it is unlikely that they would loosen their grip for the second round of games and allow the opponents a chance to come back.

Looking at points separating teams in past IPLs

If we see the history of the IPL, generally one or two teams end up as a bunny of the tournament and get thrashed by almost every other opponent. In the 2014 edition, DD ended up with just two points from 14 games – the lowest a last rank-holder has got any IPL till date. But the next worst, RCB, got 10 points.

In the 2015 edition – one of the closest fought ones – nine points (10-18) separated eight teams while the last one (KXIP) finished with a distant six points.

In 2016, the lowest ranked team – KXIP – got 8 points which were just two less than the nearest – Rising Pune Supergiant which was again just four points behind the next worst – DD and MI.

In 2017, two teams ended up at the bottom of the pool, separated by one point – Gujarat Lions (eight) and RCB (seven) while the next worst was DD, was a little bit ahead with 12 points. In the 2011 edition in which 10 teams participated, two teams finished last with 9 points – Pune Warriors India and DD while the next worst – Kochi Tuskers Kerala – finished with 12 points.

If we see the point difference between the topper and last position holders in the IPL list since 2008, the journey has been a roller coaster ride. The difference reduced from 18 in 2008 to 10 in 2011 but widened again to 18 in 2014 to come down to 10 in 2016 and went up to 13 last year. The gap might go further up in 2018 as three teams are struggling to keep up with the best performers.

Money & fame don’t ensure favourable results in IPL

The results in IPL 2018 also prove that the roles of money and fame don’t really matter much beyond the hyped auctions that lead to the tournament. The four teams from the last this year are all weighty teams – Rajasthan Royals, RCB, MI and DD with the last one not in great shape over the years but yet made the headlines after local lad Gautam Gambhir took over as its captain this year. But they have largely failed to impress their fans so far.

On the other hand, a team like CSK which came back after two years of suspension found their rhythm going straightaway and are steadily progressing towards yet another final and title.

A look at points separating 4th & 5th ranked teams in IPL

Another way of looking at the predictability of IPL 11 is the number of points that are separating the fourth from the fifth position holders. An intense contest means very little point difference between the top four that qualify for the playoffs and the rest.

In 2008, only one point separated the fourth position holders DD from the fifth MI (15 to 14) while in 2009, now defunct Deccan Chargers and KXIP finished with 14 points but it was the former who went through by virtue of a better net run-rate.

In 2010, as many as four teams were tied at 14 points (CSK, RCB, DD and KKR) and only CSK and RCB went to the semifinals because of superior run rates. In 2011, fourth-ranked KKR finished with just two points better than KXIP, the fifth, while in 2012, both CSK and RCB ended up with 17 points but Dhoni’s men qualified because of a better run-rate.

In 2013, SRH qualified as the fourth team for the playoffs with 20 points while the next best team, RCB, finished with 18 points. In 2014, MI pipped RR to the playoffs because of a better run rate after both teams finished their campaign with 14 points.

In 2015, which was really a chock-a-block edition, defenders KKR missed out on the playoffs by finishing just one point short of the fourth team – RR. In 2016, KKR was the fourth best team with 16 points (SRH also had same points but a better run rate) and they were two points better than MI who finished fifth despite having same points like DD because of a better run rate. KKR qualified for the playoffs in 2017 as the fourth team as well with 16 points, finishing two points more than KXIP.

In 2018, this gap could be far too big.

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