IPL 2018: Best and worst scenarios for the seven sides attempting to make the playoffs

The eleventh season of the Indian Premier League is nearing the playoffs and the league stage is left with eight matches. The teams have been phenomenal and have given each other a run for their money, which is evident from the nail-biting encounters in the tournament. Prior to the start of the event, every team craved for a berth in the top four out of which seven teams are still in the race for the next stage.

However, there are incentives associated with finishing among the top teams. The holders of the first two positions get a couple of opportunities to play the Final. The next two position holders need to win three matches on the trot to win the championship. In our article, we take you through the best and worst possible scenarios for the sides trying to progress to the next round.

#1 Sunrisers Hyderabad

Remaining matches

Versus Royal Challengers Bangalore- M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bangalore, 17th May  

Versus Kolkata Knight Riders- Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Hyderabad, 19th May

Best possible scenario- W, W- end with 22 points

Highest possible finish: Number 1

Sunrisers Hyderabad will finish at the top of the points table, irrespective of the results of other matches.

Worst Possible Scenario – L, L- end with 18 points

Lowest possible finish: Number 2

Chennai Super Kings (CSK) can overhaul them with 20 points. Moreover, SRH and CSK’s net run-rates are +0.400 and +0.383. Hence MS Dhoni’s men can also afford one victory, equal them on 18 points and yet finish above the Sunrisers.

In that scenario, SRH have to hope for CSK’s defeat in the other match by a particular margin in order for Chennai’s NRR to finish below that of the Sunrisers. Meanwhile, they also have to ensure that their losses aren’t big enough to take their NRR below the same of CSK’s.

#2 Chennai Super Kings

Remaining matches

Versus Delhi Daredevils- Feroz Shah Kotla, New Delhi- 18th May

Versus Kings XI Punjab- Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune- 20th May

Best possible scenario- W, W- end with 20 points

Highest possible finish: Number 1

CSK (20 points) can finish on top provided SRH lose both their matches. Moreover, if SRH wins one match, even then CSK has the possibility of finishing above them. The same is for the reason that CSK’s net-run rate is 0.017 (SRH 0.400- CSK 0.383) less than that of the Sunrisers, which can be covered up.

Worst Possible Scenario – L, L- end with 16 points

Lowest possible finish: Number 4 

CSK have threats from Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR), Rajasthan Royals (RR) and the Kings XI Punjab (KXIP) who can finish on 16 points, provided they win their remaining two games each. However, among the three teams, only two can finish on 16 points for the fact the RR and KKR will lock horns today.

The loser of the encounter can’t catch CSK’s 16 points. Hence, CSK, at the worst can finish at the number 4 position. The comforting factor for CSK is that there is a stark contrast between theirs and the other teams’ Net Run Rates.

While Chennai’s NRR is +0.383, KKR, RR and KXIP’s NRR are -0.189, -0.347 and -0.518 respectively. It will require some herculean efforts from either of the two teams and a couple of dismal performances by CSK in order for the latter’s NRR to drop below the eventual NRR of the two sides.

#3 Kolkata Knight Riders

Remaining matches

Versus Rajasthan Royals- Eden Gardens, Kolkata- 15th May

Versus Sunrisers Hyderabad- Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium- 19th May

Best possible scenario- W, W- end with 16 points

Highest possible finish: Number 2

KKR’s two wins will mean that RR can’t equal them and hence, Ajinkya Rahane’s men are out of the equation. Kings XI Punjab (KXIP) remains to be KKR’s only concern. However, the Knights have a Net Run Rate of -0.189 which is 0.329 more than that of KXIP’s -0.518.

Two wins will also mean that KKR’s NRR will escalate and it will be harder for KXIP to overhaul them. Moreover, the Shah Rukh Khan-owned franchise can also surpass CSK, provided the MS Dhoni-led team loses both matches and KKR narrows the difference between theirs and CSK’s which is -0.572 (CSK +0.383 – KKR (-0.189)).

Worst Possible Scenario – L, L- end with 12 points

Lowest possible finish: Number – 7 (Elimination)

KKR’s loss tomorrow against RR will mean that they slide to number 4 or number 5 (below KXIP) depending on the margin of defeat. Moreover, MI (+0.405) and RCB (+0.218) have a superior Net Run Rate than KKR (-0.189). Hence, at least a win each for MI and RCB might send KKR even below.

They are currently at the number 3 position and if the situation goes terribly wrong for them, they might see themselves at number 7 following RCB’s match against SRH in Hyderabad on May 17. KKR can’t be the cellar dweller, replacing the Delhi Daredevils (DD), as DD can only go up to 10 points.

#4 Rajasthan Royals

Remaining matches

Versus Kolkata Knight Riders- Eden Gardens, Kolkata- 15th May

Versus Royal Challengers Bangalore- Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur- 19th May

Best possible scenario- W, W- end with 16 points

Highest possible finish: Number 2

RR’S most likely position is number 3, but with luck favouring them, they can even topple CSK to number 2. Rajasthan’s next match is against KKR and they will move to the third spot provided they manage to humble the Knights.

Moreover, a victory against RCB in Jaipur will mean that they remain at number 3 or move to even number 2 if they breach CSK’s NRR of +0.383 which seems unlikely with the difference being 0.73 (CSK +0.383- (RR -0.347). Moreover, CSK will also have to lose against DD and KXIP for RR to surpass them.

Worst Possible Scenario – L, L- end with 12 points

Lowest possible finish: Number-7 (Elimination)

A loss against KKR keeps them at number 4 or take them to number 5, below KXIP if the Knights manage to beat Rahane’s boys by a fair margin. Just like KKR, the Royals also have an inferior Net Run Rate (-0.347) than MI (+0.405) and RCB (+0.218).

If everything goes against them in the next two days, they might find themselves at number 7, following the RCB vs SRH game day after tomorrow. They can only stay above DD, who have cemented their position at number 8.

#5 Kings XI Punjab

Remaining matches

Versus Mumbai Indians- Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai- 16th May

Versus Chennai Super Kings- Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune- 20th May

Best possible scenario- W, W- end with 16 points

Highest possible finish: Number 2

KXIP is currently at number 5 in the points table and their next match is against MI at the Wankhede. But before that, they have a chance to move one position up to number four, provided either of KKR (-0.189) and RR (-0.347) suffers a defeat, heavy enough to put their Net Run Rate below KXIP’s -0.518.

Their most likely position is number 4, bearing in mind their poor NRR. Mathematically, they can even finish above CSK in the second position, but it will require a superhuman effort to breach the gap between theirs and Chennai’s NRR which is currently 0.901 (CSK 0.383- KXIP (-0.518).

Worst Possible Scenario – L, L- end with 12 points

Lowest possible finish: Number 7 (Elimination)

They have the worst NRR along with KKR and RR who are standing on 12 points from 12 matches. To make things worse, MI and RCB, who are below them, also have a far superior Net Run Rate. Hence, one victory for either both MI and RCB would see them slip to number 7.

With a horrendous NRR, even one defeat would be good enough to oust them from the tournament, though a team can also qualify on the back of 7 victories.   

#6 Mumbai Indians

Remaining matches

Versus Kings XI Punjab- Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai- 16th May

Versus Delhi Daredevils- Feroz Shah Kotla, New Delhi- 20th May

Best possible scenario- W, W- end with 14 points

Highest possible finish: Number 3

MI, with a couple of wins, have a good chance of moving even to the third position. The franchise has the best Net Run Rate (+0.405) among all the eight teams, which is definably a positive sign for them.

Based on that, Mumbai only need to equal on points with KKR, RR and KXIP on 14 points. However, any two out of the three teams reaching 16 points will make it impossible for MI to move to even number 4.

They next play against the KXIP in Mumbai and a victory will take them to the fourth position, bearing in mind that RR and KKR will face each other and one team will move to 14 points. They also have to hope for RCB, who also have an impressive NRR of (0.218) to lose one game and end with 12 points.

Worst Possible Scenario – L, L- end with 10 points

Lowest possible finish: Number 8 (Elimination)

MI are currently placed in the 6th position. RCB need to win one out of their two games in order to push MI to the 7th spot. Though chances are bleak, MI can even finish at the bottom of the table below the Daredevils.

However, the chances are bleak as a difference of 0.883 (MI +0.405- DD (-0.478) is a massive one to cover in a few matches, barring some extraordinary circumstances.

#7 Royal Challengers Bangalore

Remaining matches

Versus Sunrisers Hyderabad- M.Chinnaswamy Stadium, Hyderabad- 17th May

Versus Rajasthan Royals- Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur- 19th May

Best possible scenario- W, W- end with 14 points

Highest possible finish: Number 3

A couple of wins for RCB might see them even to the third position. They have a better Net Run Rate than that of KKR, RR and KXIP, which can see Virat Kohli’s men topple them even with 14 points each. MI is a massive competitor for them as they have a superior NRR, which is 0.187 more than that of RCB.

MI have to lose at least one game in order for RCB to leave them behind. Nevertheless, even if they win both matches, RCB need to ensure that their NRR sneaks ahead of MI.

Worst Possible Scenario – L, L- end with 10 points

Lowest possible finish: Number 8 (Elimination)

RCB are likely to remain 7th in the points table if they lose both their matches against SRH and RR respectively. Delhi has a numerical chance to leave them behind at the eighth position. However, the gap between their Net Run Rate is 0.696 (RCB +0.218- DD (-0.478), which seems to be a tad on the improbable side.

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