IPL 2018: Stars and stats align in Chennai Super Kings favor this season

The 2018 edition of the Indian Premier League has reached the business end of the season. The four teams that have made it to the playoffs are – Sunrisers Hyderabad, Chennai Super Kings, Kolkata Knight Riders, and the Rajasthan Royals. Going by the recent form of the four teams, it is very tough to pick one strongest unit among the four. However, one can certainly draw conclusions to predict the ultimate winner of IPL 2018.

Going by the historical data of the previous 10 editions of the tournament, it is safe to deduce that the Chennai Super Kings have an upper hand in the season. Having said that, this is just a probability and not a certainty. A good explanation about why the Super Kings have the stars aligned in their favor is illustrated below.

Over the last 10 editions of the IPL, the Super Kings have won the tournament twice. And so have the Kolkata Knight Riders. The Rajasthan Royals and the Sunrisers Hyderabad have won the IPL title on one occasion each. In this season, the stage is set for Qualifier 1 between SRH and CSK, and the Eliminator clash between RR and KKR.

Fortunes of the team finishing 1st in League Stage

This season, the Sunrisers Hyderabad have finished as the table toppers. Over the years, the team finishing first on the points table has won the IPL title on just 2 occasions in 10 seasons – Rajasthan Royals (2008), Mumbai Indians (2017). Hence, they have had only 20 per cent chances of winning. Also, their chances of making it to the finals have been 70 % – 7 out of 10 seasons.

Fortunes of the team finishing 2nd in League Stage

Historically, the team finishing second in the points table has gone on to win the IPL title 5 out of 10 seasons. Hence, the chances are 50 %. This season, the Chennai Super Kings have finished second. The teams who have won the title after finishing second in the points table are Chennai Super Kings (2011), Kolkata Knight Riders (2012, 2014), Mumbai Indians (2013, 2015). Also, the team finishing second has made it to the finals on 7 out of 10 occasions.

Fortunes of the team finishing 3rd in League Stage

For the team that has finished third in the points table, the stats do not align well enough. Only on two occasions have the side finishing third in the points table have won the IPL – Chennai Super Kings (2010), Sunrisers Hyderabad (2016). They have had 20 per cent chances of winning. Also, they have made it to the finals on only 4 out of the 10 occasions.

Fortunes of the team finishing 4th in League Stage

Lastly, the team that has finished fourth on the points table has won the IPL just once – the Deccan Chargers in 2009. They have made it to the finals on only two occasions in the 10 seasons.

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