IPL 2025 Qualification Scenarios: How can Lucknow Super Giants still qualify for playoffs?

After a mid-season suspension due to cross-border tensions, the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025 is set to resume on May 17 with just 13 league games left before the playoffs. For the Lucknow Super Giants (LSG), the break was crucial as they got some time off to regroup and reflect on their previous performances. With three matches remaining and a spot in the top four uncertain, the Rishabh Pant-led side needs a miracle to see them in the top four.

LSG are currently seventh on the points table with 10 points from 11 games and a poor net run-rate (NRR) of -0.469. Their recent form has been underwhelming, with three straight losses and four defeats in their last five matches.

In their last game before the suspension, they were handed a 37-run defeat by Punjab Kings at Dharamshala. With three must-win matches scheduled, their only target is to come out victorious. 

LSG's Remaining Fixtures

Lucknow Super Giants have a total of three games ahead of them. The fixture list is as follows:

• vs Sunrisers Hyderabad (May 19)
• vs Gujarat Titans (May 22)
• vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru (May 27)

Notably, two of the remaining fixtures will be played at their home venue, Bharat Ratna Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee Ekana Cricket Stadium. With the only away game being against GT at Ahmedabad's Narendra Modi Stadium.

Qualification Scenarios

Scenario 1

The best-case scenario for LSG is to win all three remaining fixtures to finish at 16 points. But that alone may not be enough. With teams like PBKS (15 points), MI (14), DC (13), and RCB and GT (16 each) already in contention, qualification isn’t dependent solely on wins for the Rishabh Pant-led side.

To qualify, LSG will need Mumbai Indians to lose both their remaining games, especially the one against Delhi Capitals. Meanwhile, the Axar Patel-led Capitals should suffer defeat in at least two of their last three games as they are left to play MI, GT, and PBKS for the league stages.

Moreover, Punjab Kings are also to lose at least one of their final matches to avoid overtaking LSG on points. GT and RCB are not to win all their remaining matches, although LSG has that opportunity if they beat them both. Even if these results go in their favour, a poor NRR could still be a concern. Therefore, LSG must win at least one game by a big margin to boost their net run rate.

Scenario 2

If LSG lose even one of their last three matches, they are eliminated from playoff contention. A loss would limit their maximum possible points to 14, a finish unlikely to secure them qualification, especially with at least four other teams in reach of 16 or more points.

The resumed league will also see several overseas players leaving for international duties, possibly weakening some squads. While LSG might lose Aiden Markram to the WTC final, they are expected to retain Mitchell Marsh, Nicholas Pooran, and David Miller for the fag end of the season.